Poll Shows Support for New Compacts

A survey released yesterday by The Field Institute found that 52 percent of Californians likely to vote in the February primary election would support the agreements approved by the Legislature and Gov. Schwarzenegger.

35 percent of those polled said they would vote to overturn the deals and 13 percent were undecided.

Poll director Mark DiCamillo said the level of support means the agreements have at least an even chance of surviving.

"If an initiative starts out with a lead within the margin of error or behind, it almost always loses," DiCamillo said. "If an initiative starts out with a double-digit lead, about half the time they pass, half the time they fail."

Opponents of the compacts, including a labor union, two horse-racing tracks and two other tribes with casinos, contend that the deals are flawed, and they want them overturned. In July, they launched a multimillion-dollar effort to collect enough signatures to qualify a voter referendum on each of the compacts for the February ballot. Registrars of voters across the state are counting those signatures now.

Al Lundeen, a spokesman for the opposition group called No on the Unfair Gambling Deals, said he recognizes the other side likely will outspend his group. He hopes, however, to spread the message that the compacts won't generate the amount of revenue for the state that supporters claim and won't do anything more to help non-gaming tribes.

"I think these numbers show that the compacts are in trouble," he said. "These compacts unfairly benefit four already-wealthy tribes at the expense of other tribes and the taxpayers in California."

Supporters of the compact amendments -- three of which were signed by Riverside County tribes -- tout the revenue benefits to the state and have banded together. They've been running TV ads for weeks, urging voters to support the agreements in the interest of boosting the state's income without raising taxes.

"Californians know a good deal when they see one. They know that $9 billion in additional revenue while keeping gaming on existing tribal lands is a win-win for the state and for the taxpayers," said Roger Salazar, a spokesman for the four tribes that have formed the Coalition to Protect California's Budget & Economy.

Two of the tribes, the Pechanga and Morongo bands, also have filed a lawsuit alleging that Secretary of State Debra Bowen gave the deals' opponents too much time to gather signatures. A court hearing is scheduled later this week.

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